The Layman’s Guide to Volatility Forecasting

Eddy Bae, CFA | Director, Products and Index Operations | eddy@saltfinancial.com

Volatility forecasting can work reasonably well—but measuring results is not as easy as it appears. Capturing both intraday and overnight moves is important for proper risk management. More sophisticated methods that place more weight on more recent observations tend to outperform. Adding high frequency returns can significantly improve forecast accuracy using relatively simple methods.

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